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It feels like several months ago that the 2011 Academy Award nominations were first read aloud with much pomp and circumstance. Since then, they have been analyzed, scrutinized, and politicized to death. Meanwhile, there have been approximately 124 other award shows, and AFS—“Awards Fatigue Syndrome”—is setting in. You want to cry out, “Enough already!” Still, after Sugar Ray has told Katherine Heigel on the red carpet how great she looks in her Vera Wang gown and the music starts to swell, it will be difficult for any film enthusiast not to get excited for Oscar. There’s the anticipation of whether the opening monologue (by hosts James Franco and Anne Hathaway) will bomb or make you pee your pants. And then finally, that first award of the night is handed out. So without further ado, here are my official picks for nine Oscar categories. Feel free to use them in your office pool.

PICTURE
Nominees: 127 Hours; Black Swan; The Fighter; Inception; The Kids Are All Right; The King’s Speech; The Social Network; Toy Story 3; True Grit; Winter’s Bone

Of this diverse group, The Social Network has received the most buzz for the longest time and has racked up its fair share of awards from critics’ groups. My personal preference is Inception, but look for The King’s Speech to take the top prize. Disenchantment has set in with The Social Network express and The King’s Speech has nabbed all three major guild prizes (director, producer, and actor).

ACTOR
Nominees: Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network; Colin Firth, The King’s Speech; James Franco, 127 Hours

There are a few slam dunks this year and Colin Firth as Best Actor is one of them. This is not even close, thanks to an absolutely unforgettable performance by Firth as the stuttering duke who did not want to be king.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Christian Bale, The Fighter; John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone; Jeremy Renner, The Town; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

Hawkes was a surprise nominee and Rush was superb as Firth’s unconventional speech therapist, but they all pale in comparison to Bale’s transformation as a drug addicted, washed-up boxer and older brother to Mark Wahlberg’s protagonist.

ACTRESS
Nominees: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right; Nicole Kidman, The Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone; Natalie Portman, Black Swan; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Excellent performances abound in this category and there seems to have been a push lately for Bening. However, it’s Portman who will be standing alone on the Oscar stage. On a side note, if Temple Grandin had been a motion picture release and not an HBO movie, then we would be talking about Claire Danes as the favorite to win.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Amy Adams, The Fighter; Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech; Melissa Leo, The Fighter; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Leo may have sunk her chances through her recent campaign in which she wears faux fur to woo Academy voters. With Adams already taking votes from Leo, Stanfield should move in to win the Oscar. Plus, the Academy tends to like breakout performances by young actresses in this category: Anna Paquin, Tatum O’Neal, and Patty Duke were all younger than 17 when they won.

In other categories, look for David Fincher to win Best Director for The Social Network; David Seidler to win Best Original Screenplay for The King’s Speech; Aaron Sorkin to win Best Adapted Screenplay for The Social Network; and Roger Deakins to win Best Cinematography for True Grit.

By Michael D. Smith

Indie Film Editor

Michael D. Smith earned a Bachelor of Arts in history at College of the Ozarks in Point Lookout, Missouri followed by a Master of Arts in history at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.

Inspired by such critics as Gene Siskel and Roger Ebert, Michael started reviewing films in 1992 for College of the Ozarks's student-run newspaper. After returning to the Kansas City area in 1994, he continued film reviewing by writing for the Cass County Democrat Missourian in Harrisonville.

In 2000 Michael joined Sun Publications in Overland Park, Kansas where he served as its film critic and Arts and Entertainment Editor. During his tenure there, he was also the film critic for the "Fine Arts Radio Hour" and "Celebrity Scoop" radio shows on KXTR. After leaving the Sun in late 2002, he became the A&E writer for the Olathe News in Olathe, Kansas. He also worked as a freelance writer for The Squire in Leawood, Showcase Publishing in Lake Ozark, Missouri and the Kansas City Star.

Michael is currently a member of the Kansas City Film Critics Circle, a professional film critic organization established in 1966 by the late Dr. James Loutzenhiser.

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