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The Golden Globes. It’s the most laid back, arguably greatest entertaining awards ceremony of the year. I dare you to name another live awards show during which a winner is announced and the presenter has to then wait for them to return from a bathroom break.

On January 16, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association will be handing out its Golden Globe Awards for the 68^th time in Beverly Hills, California. Generally it serves as a precursor for the Academy Awards, which will be held in March, but it doesn’t mean it’s a guarantee. Below are seven major film categories, each with five nominations and my prediction for who could win.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture – Drama
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Mila Kunis – Black Swan
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Jacki Weaver – Animal Kingdom

As seems the case every year, this category is truly up for grabs. The sad thing is that no one seems to quite know where to put Hailee Steinfeld from True Grit. As of January 6^th, 25 professional film critic groups across the country had selected what they thought was in the best in cinema last year. While Steinfeld is the lead female in True Grit, nine groups thus far have selected her as best supporting actress. However, she did not receive a Golden Globe nod. As for those that did, Leo has received recognition from seven critic groups and should be the favorite. Six of the last 11 winners in this category have won an Oscar.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture – Drama
Christian Bale – The Fighter
Michael Douglas – Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Bale is mesmerizing as Mark Wahlberg’s crack-addicted half-brother who’s deluded himself with the idea that he is going to make a comeback. Critics all over the country have been blown away by his performance because so far 18 have selected him as the best in this category. Rush is superb as well but no one reaches the stratosphere like Bale does. Eight of the last 11 winners have won an Oscar.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Halle Berry – Frankie and Alice
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Portman delivers the definitive performance of her career as frigid ballerina with a cracked psyche. Seventeen critic groups have selected her while Lawrence is a distant second. Seven of the last 11 winners in the drama category have won an Oscar. (Two actresses – Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line and Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose in 2006 and 2008, respectively – won the Globe’s musical/comedy category and then also the Oscar.)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine
Mark Wahlberg – The Fighter

Among critics, this category is a little closer than others, but a majority of 13 have went with Firth, who deserves every award possible for his brilliant portrayal of King George VI. Six groups have selected Franco and five have went with Eisenberg. Five of the last 11 winners in the drama category have won an Oscar.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
127 Hours
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Unlike the Academy Awards, which separates adapted and original screenplays, the Golden Globes has just one, all-encompassing screenplay category. Among critic groups, The Social Network has been voted by every one thus far as the best adapted screenplay of the year. Although Inception is leading the way in the original screenplay category, it has not been as dominating. Look for The Social Network to win out here.

Best Director – Motion Picture
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
Christopher Nolan – Inception
David O. Russell – The Fighter

Fincher is easily leading the way among critic groups with 16 selecting him as the year’s best director. The same will hold true at the Golden Globes with Nolan probably finishing in second. Once again, only 6 of the last 11 winners for best direction have later won an Oscar.

Best Motion Picture – Drama
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Twenty-one critic groups, including the Kansas City Film Critics Circle, have picked The Social Network as the year’s best. As such, this should be a slam dunk despite my own personal feelings for Christopher Nolan’s Inception, will be The Social Network’s closest competition. Five of the last 11 winners in the drama category have gone on to win an Oscar.
 

By Michael D. Smith

Indie Film Editor

Michael D. Smith earned a Bachelor of Arts in history at College of the Ozarks in Point Lookout, Missouri followed by a Master of Arts in history at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.

Inspired by such critics as Gene Siskel and Roger Ebert, Michael started reviewing films in 1992 for College of the Ozarks's student-run newspaper. After returning to the Kansas City area in 1994, he continued film reviewing by writing for the Cass County Democrat Missourian in Harrisonville.

In 2000 Michael joined Sun Publications in Overland Park, Kansas where he served as its film critic and Arts and Entertainment Editor. During his tenure there, he was also the film critic for the "Fine Arts Radio Hour" and "Celebrity Scoop" radio shows on KXTR. After leaving the Sun in late 2002, he became the A&E writer for the Olathe News in Olathe, Kansas. He also worked as a freelance writer for The Squire in Leawood, Showcase Publishing in Lake Ozark, Missouri and the Kansas City Star.

Michael is currently a member of the Kansas City Film Critics Circle, a professional film critic organization established in 1966 by the late Dr. James Loutzenhiser.

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